Rodriguez Vs Lemos
1.47 / 2.75
Amanda Lemos will be stepping up this weekend to compete in her first main event fight, against current strawweight #3 Marina Rodriguez.
Statistically, this is a 50/50 fight, both athletes are 35 years old, Rodriguez is 6-1-2 in UFC and Lemos is 6-2, there’s only 2” difference in height and no discrepancies in reach.
Rodriguez is running hot with a four-fight winning streak, with victories over #5, #6, #9 and #11 in the division. Marina has never been finished and her only career loss came by split decision to the current Champion, Carla Esparza. She’s finished 1/6 of her UFC fights, giving her an 83% decision rate.
Lemos joined the UFC in 2017, where she conceded her first loss by TKO to Leslie Smith. Following this, she took a two-year break before returning in 2019 and going on an impressive five-fight winning streak, before being submitted by Jessica Andrade. Interestingly she has never lost by decision. She boats a 66% finish rate inside the Octagon, with two KO’s and two submissions to her name. This will be Lemos’ toughest test to date and the first time she will face an opponent inside the top 10.
Magny Vs Rodriguez
1.83 / 2.0
The Haitian Sensation will be returning to the Octagon this week for his 28th appearance. The man is known to be a true warrior, accepting fights that no one else will, such as his recent bout against unbeaten prospect Shavkat Rhakhmonov. He is currently #13 in the welterweight rankings, going 3-2 in his last five fights.
This week he will face D-Rod, who is riding a 4-fight winning streak, going 4-1 in his last 5 bouts. Rodriguez has a predominately striking based style, with a background in boxing. He is statistically the higher volume striker in this match-up, landing almost 8 significant strikes per min.
Interestingly, both these fighters have met Li in the Octagon, with Magny securing the unanimous Decision win in 2020 and D-Rod taking a controversial split-decision win earlier this year.
It’s also important to note that Magny has a significant reach advantage with 6” on D-rod, which he will use to his advantage in the striking. D-rod has never been finished, and 9 out of their last 10 combined UFC fights have gone to decision, so we are likely to see this one gone all three rounds. Real potential for fight of the night here.
Perisian Vs Sherman
1.9 / 1.9
The bookies have this heavyweight match-up as a 50/50 fight on the odds. Sherman had a good outing in his last fight against Vanderaa, throwing nice boxing combinations and showing a lot of determination to secure the win, but prior to that he was on a 4-fight losing streak. Parisian has had a slightly better run in the UFC, going 2-2 overall, and is certainly yet to show any signs of being a true future contender in the HW division. This one really is a coin toss.
Ulanbekov Vs Maness
1.57 / 2.5
Maness will be dropping down to flyweight for this one, where he is the underdog at odds of 2.5, which is an implied probability of 40%. Interestingly both athletes are coming off their first UFC career loss, Maness lost to Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision, in bout where was a significant underdog, and Ulanbekov is coming off a decision loss to Tim Elliot, despite coming in as the favourite.
It's important to note that so far, Ulanbekov has been the heavy favourite in both of his two UFC wins and both opponents took him to a decision, where as Maness has faced arguably tougher opponents at higher weight classes, coming in as the underdog on two occasions before walking away with a unanimous decision win and a KO.
Statistically Ulanbekov has landed a higher volume of strikes per min and has landed a higher number of takedowns. He has a grinding wrestling style and is more likely to go to decision, having not yet finished any opponents inside the octagon. Maness is certainly the more entertaining fighter, constantly challenging his opponents in the scramble and has been able to secure two finishes in the UFC, one submission and one KO.
Madsen Vs Dawson
2.75 / 1.47
Unbeaten Madsen, holding an impressive 12-0 record, takes on hot prospect Grant Dawson, 18-1-1 in this Lightweight match-up. Former Olympic wrestler, Madsen, is now 4-0 in the UFC and this will without a doubt be his toughest test to date against grappling specialist Dawson.
Dawson always comes with the same approach, immediately looking for the takedown and to take the back of his opponents. So far, he has amassed a 5-0-1 UFC record, with 4 Rear-Naked Choke submissions.
Madsen of course has a very similar style, always looking to implement his Olympic level wrestling on any opponent and statistically hits 4 takedowns per 15 mins at 66% accuracy. All bar one of his UFC fights have been won by decision, so he is yet to show the finishing capability of Dawson, despite having the more effective wrestling.
It’s critical to note there that Dawson is 10 years’ younger than Madsen, at only 28 years old. Statistically, where there is a 10-year age gap, the younger fighter wins 70% of the time. This is almost exactly reflected in the odds, with Dawson sitting at 1.47, which is an implied probability of 68%.
Almeida Vs Grishin
1.14 / 6.0
The final fight on this week’s main card is Brazilian fighter, Jailton Almeida, who compares his style to Khabib’s. He has a 17-2 overall record, 3-0 UFC record and has finish every one of his UFC opponents inside the first round. He holds a black belt in BJJ, uses his physicality and smothering wrestling to control his opponents and take them to the mat, before looking for the submission or a ground and pound finish. There is little any of his UFC opponents have been able to offer to compete with him, so it’s no surprise he comes in at a massive favourite at odds of 1.14, an implied probability of 89%.
He will take on Russia’ Maxim Grishin, an experienced fighter with a 32-9-2 record, and a predominantly kickboxing style. He is 2-2 in the UFC, taking decision losses to Jacoby and Tybura. The bookies clearly think it is very unlikely that Grishin will have much in terms of offence to offer Almeida and it is very difficult to argue with that.
Our Research and Bets for this card will be released later this week.
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