Kattar Vs Allen
Kattar, currently #5 Featherweight, opens as the favourite at odds of 1.76, which is an implied probability of 56.8%. Allen, sitting at #6, is a slight underdog at odds of 2.1, which is an implied probability of 47.6%.
As the odds suggest, this is a very well-matched fight, between two high-volume strikers who are notoriously difficult to put away. Both have gone to the decision in 4 out of their last 5 fights, equivalent to an 80% decision rate.
Kattar joined the UFC in 2017, has had 11 fights, and has never been finished in UFC. The only losses have come to high-level opponents in Max Holloway, Josh Emmett (split-decision), Megomedsharipov, and Moicano in his 2018 prime.
Allen joined the UFC a few years earlier, in 2015, and is riding an impressive 9-fight winning streak in UFC, an overall 11-fight winning streak.
UK MMA fans have been eagerly waiting to see Allen step up to this level of opponent, as he has not yet faced anyone inside the top 10. Kattar has certainly faced higher-level opponents inside the UFC, however, we cannot ignore the fact that Allen has beaten every man that has been put in front of him and done so convincingly.
The stats across the board are similar for these guys, another reason why the odds sit where they do. The major unknown for us here is Allen’s ability to fight over 5 rounds.
Means Vs Griffin
The Dirty Bird is returning for his 47th professional bout, and will co-main event this UFC, against fellow Welterweight veteran Max Griffin. Griffin opens as the favourite at odds of 1.53, which is an implied probability of 65.36%, Means is offered at 2.6, which is an implied probability of 38.4%.
Both athletes are past their prime at 38 and 36 years old respectively. Both fighters are 3-2 in their last 5 appearances. So far, it’s all looking like a 50/50 fight.
However, Griffin’s two losses have come by Split-Decision, and he was an underdog in both bouts. Means’ losses have come by Submission in R2, where he was the favourite in one and the underdog in the other. In addition to this, Griffin has KO’d two of his last three wins, whereas Means has ridden out to three Unanimous Decision victories.
Interestingly, Means has only one win as an underdog in the UFC and that was against Staropoli, who has since been dropped. Every other bout where he was the underdog he has lost.
Max has conceded two losses as a slight favourite and both losses have come by Split-Decision.
This is a top contender for fight of the night, especially for those UFC fans how have been around for a while.
Jacoby Vs Roundtree
The fans love a match-up like this, two light-heavyweight kickboxers who will stand and bang for three rounds unless one of them gets KO’d along the way!
Jacoby opens as the favourite at 1.6 (implied probability 62.5%) and Roundtree is offered at 2.4 (implied probability 41.67%).
Jacoby is quite clearly the more experienced MMA fighter with an 18-5-1 record and he is unbeaten since returning to UFC in 2020. He has a 42% finish rate and is known of having the cardio to keep a high pace over three rounds.
Roundtree doesn’t have the MMA experience of Jacoby but should not be written off this early. This man has shockingly powerful kicks and has finished 5 out of 6 of his UFC wins, giving him an impressive 83% finishing rate! We also note that he was the underdog coming into his last four wins.
Acosta Vs Vanderaa
Statistically, this is a great match-up, two heavyweight monsters, both in their prime at 30 years old, standing at 6’4” with an 80” reach.
However, the odds makers have Acosta as the clear favourite at odds of 1.5 (implied probability of 66.67%) and Vanderaa at 2.62 (implied probability of 38.17%).
Vanderaa really needs to impress in this bout, as he is currently riding a 4-fight losing streak and has a UFC record of 1-5. He has been in some competitive fights, such as his last appearance against Chase Sherman, but doesn’t seem to have that ability to dig down deep when it’s down to the wire. He has been finished in 3 of his 5 losses and his last two losses have come in fights where he was the bookie’s favourite. I imagine another loss here would mark the end of Vanderaa’s UFC career.
On the flip side, Cortes-Acosta is right at the beginning of his journey, coming off a first-round KO win against a 6-1 opponent and Ares Champion, on DWCS. He is yet to lose in the MMA arena, is on a 3-fight KO streak and will be looking to make that 4 this weekend. He has also gone the distance in two of his last five appearances, so his cardio is not under debate.
This is Acosta’s opportunity to prove that he can hang with the big boys in the UFC and Vanderaa’s last shot to hold onto his UFC dream. Whichever way it goes, we are going to see two heavyweights throw leather and I think I can quite confidently say, we are going to see someone get KO’d!
Gore Vs Fremd
Two fighters relatively new to the UFC, Tresean Gore and Josh Fremd match-up in the Middleweight Division.
Fremd opens are the favourite at 1.53 (implied probability 65.36%) and Gore is the underdog at 2.6 (implied probability 38.46%).
Gore has an overall record of 3-2 and has lost both of his UFC fights to date, despite being a slight favourite in both matchups. Most recently, he is coming off his first KO loss, against Cody Brundage. Gore has been thrown into deep waters very early in his career, after coming into the UFC with only three pro fights under his belt. He is now showing some signs of struggling because he is trying to learn his craft in the UFC and hasn’t had a chance to finesse his skills on the regional scene unlike like 99% of the roster. However, Gore’s biggest asset his is power, which he displayed in his fight against Bryan Battle, if he catches Fremd it could be an early night.
Fremd is also looking for his first UFC win, after taking a decision loss against Anthony Hernandez in his debut, where he struggled to defend the takedown, and was grounded 8 out of 11 attempts. Despite this tough debut fight, he did demonstrate strong leg kicks, technical grappling transitions, and a whole lot of heart! He is certainly the more experienced fighter with a 9-3 record, and he has a 4” height advantage. Who will step up and prove they deserve to be in the UFC?
Our Research and Bets for this card will be released later this week.
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